Abstract
Derived from the problems of “what evidence reasoning the fact" and “how the evidence tends to prove or disprove some fact", the people who involved the road traffic accident do not approve the reconstruction expertise. They questioned the identification process of subjective evaluation for black box, even rejected the Court’s adjudge. We present a mathematical approach to measure the reconstruction expertise. This approach integrates the prior probability, posterior probability, and likelihood ratio theorem. Introduced highway traffic accident reconstruction cases materials, contained and classified the all evidence and facts on arguments, and provided to the reconstruction experts for Delphi technique. They scaled the relationship between constitute event and each evidence items, respectively obtained the likelihood of each event. Finally, we completed the scores comparison, to reach the evidence quantitative of objective method.
Keywords
road traffic accidents, reconstruction, statistical evidence, committee expertise
Citation information
Woo T. hugh, Tsou Tsung Shan, Wu Chun Liang, Study on Evidence Statistic of Traffic Accident Reconstruction, Journal of Traffic Science, 14(2012), 82-100( in Chinese)
Authors’ information
Corresponding author at: National Chiao Tung University,1001 University Road, Hsinchu 30010, Taiwan
E-mail addresses: thwoo@g2.nctu.edu.tw (TH Woo), tsou@mx.stat.ncu.edu.tw (TS Tsou), summerhill.org@gmail.com (CL Wu)
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